There is still no solution to the Ukraine issue. Those who had hoped for a steady path to peace after the meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska and the subsequent meeting with the head of Ukraine and EU leaders were disappointed. Currently, the war continues in full force. The EU is talking about security troops after the war, and Putin is threatening that this should actually happen. A quick end is once again far from the horizon. There are no signs of easing tensions in Gaza either. Israel’s decision to completely occupy Gaza City, no matter the cost, is not met with universal approval. One gets the feeling that Israel wants to end this conflict once and for all with force.

The markets, however, are reacting more to the power struggle between the Fed and Trump and to the economic data itself. The new tariffs have had no impact yet, but the worst is likely yet to come. The markets are definitely nervous and volatile.

The Euro/USD is also subject to strong fluctuations, depending on the progress of Ukraine policy and tariffs.

The only consistent safe haven is, once again, gold.

For professionals, it is naturally an exciting and often very profitable time. We always try to find and exploit the best situations.

Our world remains turbulent. People are starving in Gaza, and Ukraine continues to be bombed, despite Trump’s ultimatum. The president’s tariff policy is also now casting a shadow; the 15% tariff agreement with the EU is a disaster for both sides, if you look closely. European products will become almost unaffordable for Americans, which will naturally put a strain on exports from the EU, and expensive times are also ahead for Harley-Davidson riders in Europe. While this result is being celebrated as a success, it is certainly not an acceptable outcome, especially for the metal industry, where tariffs are even higher. If only an agreement had been reached on TTIP years ago, we wouldn’t be in this situation now. But they used scaremongering with the pretext of chlorine chicken, even though most people don’t even know what that is all about. How can I push a struggling global economy even further into trouble? I’m imposing reciprocal punitive tariffs; at the very least, anyone with common sense should now be clear where this path leads. The only one keeping the situation somewhat under control is Jerome Powell, who is keeping the Fed’s key interest rate unchanged. This clearly puts him at odds with Trump. It’s good to have someone with backbone!

The markets (here the S&P 500) are naturally reacting to this and have given way in recent days following the agreement between the EU and the US. A storm is brewing!

The euro also failed to maintain its unjustified highs against the US dollar and fell sharply again in recent trading days. Gold, on the other hand, continues to rise, but none of the politicians recognize the signs of the times!

A lot has happened again in our world. If the situation in Ukraine and the escalation in the Gaza Strip aren’t enough, no, now there’s an open conflict with Iran. Let’s hope that all parties will soon sit down at the table and start talking sensibly again. Trump continues to fly like a flag in the wind, changing direction almost hourly. Predicting what he’s planning or intending to do next is therefore a virtually impossible task. The markets have taken this almost calmly, and investors are focusing more on fundamental and economic data, ignoring the roar from the White House. On the other hand, of course, all of these actions are having an impact on the economy. Time and again, we hear that the US could slide into a recession, and with higher prices to boot. Let’s hope that the Fed counteracts this, so nothing can be expected from the government in this regard. Trump’s budget proposal was waved through the Senate once, but it remains to be seen whether it will do the same in the House of Representatives. As already mentioned, the markets remain unfazed at the moment and continue their positive trend.

S&P 500

Oil remained relatively unaffected by the entire Iranian turmoil and continues to hover around $70.

However, the euro benefited significantly from Trump’s policies, gaining significantly against the dollar.

Our strategies also helped us achieve very good profits in the second quarter. The combination of stocks and futures was able to cushion all adverse effects.

Trump, Trump, Trump, is a constant refrain. Whether geopolitically regarding Greenland, Ukraine, Yemen, or Gaza, or economically, there’s no getting away from the US President. As was the case during his first term in office, his fickleness is familiar; he clearly has precise ideas about how the world should run, and he tries to use every avenue to impose his will. His co-chairman, Musk, isn’t doing any better, making massive cuts to government spending but handing himself millions in subsidies for his space program. Let’s not even talk about the questionable interpretation of data protection when he appropriates all of the population’s data for his own purposes. What’s driving the market, however, is the emerging economic war. None of the protagonists seem to realize that every punitive tariff imposed places a greater burden on their own economy and population than on the countries on which the tariffs are imposed. For example, a German car will continue to sell for €50,000, but for an American, it will cost €62,500 in the future. This hurts the buyer, and sales will obviously decline, which will then impact the global economy. Either way, these actions will slow the already weak economic growth.

How will the markets react? They have reacted with a correction of around 11% since the beginning of March, but has everything already been priced in? Or should we expect further declines? This question will be decided in the coming weeks, and one can only hope that Trump pulls the ripcord early enough, as he did during his first term.

S&P500

What currently appears to be a small miracle is that the euro is holding its own against the dollar, even though the European economy is weaker than the American one. But the price of gold shows where things are headed; we’re seeing new highs almost daily.

Euro/US Dollar

Gold

Our investment products are quite well positioned, and we are actively working to keep it that way.

We are performing far better than the market with our main product, and we have been able to realize substantial profits with our more speculative Profit product.

The Trump administration is really cleaning up and is putting pressure on the markets. The planned austerity program and the rigorous implementation of these guidelines not only creates uncertainty but also drives the population onto the streets. Demonstrations are taking place in almost every major city in the USA to stop Trump and Musk. The country was in a state of shock for a month, but now Americans are starting to fight back. Every single decree of the president is now being reviewed by the Supreme Court and it remains to be seen what will ultimately be left of it, but it remains to be seen whether Trump will abide by the judges’ rulings. If the Biden administration artificially strengthened the economy with debt policy, now the whole thing is coming back like a boomerang. This is best seen in the Magnificent 7 (Alphabet Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla), the largest tech stocks in the world, which are also coming under pressure. The overall American stock market is currently showing weakness.

The US market is currently overbought, which is also clearly visible in the Wilshire 5000 index, the market capitalization is very high and Warren Buffet is also currently withdrawing his capital from US stocks. It remains to be seen whether we are just seeing a correction or whether it will have more serious consequences, which is of course also influenced by Mr Trump’s changed Ukraine policy and world policy.

The volatility index shows that the markets are currently extremely fragile and tend to fluctuate more, which is also a sign of the current uncertainty in the market.

All in all, we expect falling markets in the near future that will undergo a correction. We can only hope that there will not be a recession in the USA, as we are already seeing in Europe. In any case, caution and close attention to the changes is required!

A new era with an old president, that’s how you could describe the last few weeks. Immediately after taking office, Donald Trump signed over 100 decrees that are intended to make some of his campaign promises come true. While his new migration policy has had very little impact on the global economy, the tariffs he wants to impose on Canadian, Mexican and Chinese products will certainly have an impact. He also has something planned for the EU and it is to be expected that he will also increase tariffs on European products. What he forgets, however, is that these measures will also have a very strong impact on the USA and the population there, because with higher tariffs, the well-known products that Americans love so much will also become more expensive, which will certainly stir up a certain resentment among the population. The initiative against Russia regarding the Ukraine crisis to impose further sanctions is also no guarantee that the war will end soon. However, there is also some positive news, the situation in Gaza has at least calmed down to some extent, let’s see how long that lasts.

The actions of the new old president are having an effect on the market, and there have been some fluctuations in recent weeks.

The ECB’s measures to further reduce interest rates also had a major impact on the euro/dollar exchange rate. Even if no one will admit it and people only talk about inflation, the euro has been devalued by more than 10% in the last year.

The next few weeks and months will show how the measures of the new legislature in the USA will continue to affect things. We can only hope that the annexation of Greenland and the integration of Canada into the USA remain just a pipe dream.

Global turbulence continues to increase, the war in the Middle East appears to be escalating, after Israel has deliberately eliminated Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, the biggest supporter of these groups, Iran, is now getting involved again. The possible effects cannot yet be estimated, will Israel continue to surgically attack precisely identified targets, or will there be a full-scale military conflict? In any case, the whole world is watching closely and everyone is hoping that the whole situation does not escalate into a wildfire. The Middle East conflict has almost pushed the situation in Ukraine into the background, but it is no less critical. The troops of Ukraine and Russia are still facing each other in a grueling war of material resources, and although Ukraine has certainly had successes, even on Russian soil, it still lacks the necessary clout to drive Putin out of the country completely.

In the USA, the election campaign is coming to an end and it is becoming increasingly clear that Trump is losing ground. Harris is currently able to win over more of the important swing states. It remains to be seen whether Trump will pull something out of his pocket at the last minute, as he did with Hillary Clinton.

What does all this mean for the stock markets? The market is closely monitoring the political situation in the world and is reacting to it. The FED’s interest rate cut of as much as 0.5% has given shares a boost, but any escalation of the two major conflicts at the moment dampens the mood again. Another slowing factor is the weakening Europe, whose economy is not really getting going.

The EUR/USD also fluctuates considerably, depending on which current news is damaging or boosting the euro or the dollar more. Crude oil has been steadily declining throughout the year, slowing inflation, but we should not forget that the winter season is now beginning.

The strongest quarter of the year begins on October 1st, let’s see if the Christmas business drives the European economy up a little, in the USA we see great hope.

The geopolitical situation continues to be shaped by the two conflicts in Ukraine and Israel. Only yesterday Israel was able to avert Hezbollah’s attacks, but whether that was not just a first strike remains to be seen. In any case, all foreign ministries are in turmoil and are trying to find all diplomatic solutions, with the USA at the forefront of course. Kamala Harris also made it very clear at the Democratic Party convention that Israel is an ally and that Ukraine also needs continued support. At this convention, she was also chosen as the presidential candidate with a large majority and immense support. The Obamas and Hillary Clinton both voted for Harris. Let the games begin, Trump now has a completely different opponent and is already falling behind in the polls.

From an economic point of view, it was FED chief Jerome Powell who made the headlines when he hinted that the Fed could lower interest rates again in the near future. He apparently believes that inflation is under control and that cheaper money can therefore be made available. Powell is apparently following ECB chief Lagarde, who has already lowered interest rates in the euro. The euro gained slightly against the US dollar after this announcement.

The stock market is still recovering, but has currently moved somewhat sideways, which should change as soon as volume returns to the market after the summer.

Let’s hope that the current geopolitical upheavals will soon calm down.

2024 began exactly as 2023 ended, the conflict in Ukraine is still going on and there are no signs of recovery in the Gaza Strip either. On the contrary, in recent weeks and months the situation has worsened with clashes in the Golan Heights and further interference by Iran. A possible escalation cannot be ruled out.

There was also some turbulence in the USA, apart from the foreign policy activities mentioned above. The defeated Joe Biden decided not to run for the highest office in the state and as soon as Kamala Harris took the stage for the Democrats, the poll numbers rose and she is already slightly ahead of Donald Trump. Due to weak economic forecasts, we had to record a mini-crash, or rather a correction, in July, but the stock market quickly recovered and is now striving for new heights, of course always with an eye on the presidential polls and global developments.

Another focus here is on the raw materials market. In July, crude oil was still at around $84, but we are now seeing a decline to around $75.

The precious metal gold, however, is still on the rise, recording new highs almost every week and currently at over $2500 per troy ounce. This shows us that many investors still prefer to invest in a safe haven rather than take risks. On the other hand, if risk appetite returns a little, there is considerable capital that can flow into the market.

VMJV is striving to diversify its investments accordingly and thus increase profits and minimize risk. The quarterly results for the second quarter make us positive in this regard and even for the rather sluggish third quarter, the forecasts currently look quite promising. Of course, as already mentioned, a lot depends on current global events, which we of course always keep an eye on; a possible compromise in Israel or perhaps even peace negotiations in Ukraine would of course boost the entire market and increase the risk appetite of market participants again.