Peace negotiations in the Iran-Iraq War are underway, but a solution is apparently not yet in sight. Even though we are led to believe that an agreement is imminent, reality paints a different picture. The ceasefire has been extended, but whether this brings us any closer to peace remains to be seen. At the other flashpoint in Lebanon, the front lines appear to have hardened, and the ceasefire has been abandoned. Peace efforts in Ukraine are also showing signs of movement. Even the Kremlin is talking about peace negotiations, and EU representatives are happy to join the chorus. However, no one knows how much substance lies behind these talks, which is why attacks on civilian targets continue unabated. The impact of all this on the stock markets is easily explained. The stock market has now priced in all eventualities and is focusing more on the fundamentals of individual companies. This is clearly visible in the performance of the S&P 500.

The situation is somewhat different with raw materials, especially gold and oil. There, every new report from the Gulf is still being reacted to.

For investors, the situation is of course extremely interesting as it offers many opportunities to invest capital profitably.

A great deal has happened in recent weeks. Donald Trump is waging a low-key war against Iran and apparently failed to consider the consequences for the global economy. When he realized the impact of his actions on inflation and the crude oil market, he tried to backpedal. This situation could ultimately even strengthen Iran, which would be disastrous for the region. Currently, there is talk of “friends talks,” but why should Iran agree to the Trump administration’s demands? Given that the president has little support at home, his leverage is extremely limited. Once again, it has become clear that Donald Trump lacks both foresight and even a shred of a plan. It remains to be seen what will ultimately be the outcome of the disaster he has created in the Gulf region.

The Europeans, for their part, don’t know how to react, so they are acting in typical European fashion: “wait and see.” This, of course, contributes little to a solution, but the EU is still primarily preoccupied with the Ukraine crisis.

Israel continues to fan the flames, hoping to finally rid itself of its long-standing arch-enemy, Iran.

The markets are, of course, reacting very volatilely, as the S&P 500 chart since the beginning of the year shows. Only since mid-April have we seen a continuous rise:

The changing direction is even more apparent with crude oil. We even saw highs of $115 at one point:

For our investments, the current situation naturally offers many opportunities. We have been able to take advantage of the various price fluctuations very effectively and generate corresponding profits.

The year is barely two weeks old, yet it will already go down in history. Trump’s attack on Venezuela and his ambitions regarding Greenland are throwing world politics into turmoil. Even at home, there is growing rebellion against the president and his methods. As has often been observed, he apparently suffers from attention deficit disorder. He quickly loses interest in issues if they aren’t resolved quickly to his satisfaction, as seen with Ukraine. The bombing continues, and peace seems a distant prospect.

The markets are actually reacting very little; we’re in a volatile sideways movement, much like a tiger waiting intently for its prey, poised to pounce. But even here, Trump wants to exert influence by launching an investigation against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Precious metals continue to be extremely active. This is also a sign that market participants are expecting further turbulence, primarily resulting from the actions of Donald Trump.

The markets remain exciting, and with the right touch, significant profits can be made.

The year is drawing to a close, and we are still confronted with the same conflicts as at the beginning. The ceasefire in Gaza continues to crumble, and a lasting peace seems a long way off. Even though negotiations appear to be underway in the Ukraine conflict, it remains to be seen whether Putin will actually sit down at the table. Cynics might claim that Trump is trying everything to portray himself as a peacemaker, perhaps hoping to finally win the Nobel Peace Prize. Unfortunately, his efforts are poorly conceived and have significant shortcomings for long-term sustainability.

The market is taking a somewhat wait-and-see approach; we’re currently moving sideways. (S&P 500)

The euro-dollar exchange rate continues to fluctuate, depending on whether geopolitical events are positive or negative for the EU.

Oil prices have been steadily decreasing since summer, and even now in the winter months the price remains rather low.

Economically, 2026 should show a slight improvement over the previous year. However, several challenges lie ahead, such as the situation in Gaza and Ukraine, and not forgetting a potential new nuclear agreement with Iran. For the US, the election of the new Fed chair will also be crucial for future fiscal policy. So, many exciting and potentially profitable situations await us.

Once again, Trump talked a lot and little happened. No peace in Gaza yet, no peace in Ukraine yet. The American economy is showing a recession, Trump’s tariffs are gripping, but probably not as he expected. The only reasonable one at the moment is the FED boss, according to which he does not lower interest rates as demanded by the president. An interest rate cut would boost inflation and drive the recession even further.

The markets are currently fluctuating almost daily, a clear line does not appear.

The euro is giving way against the dollar, according to which the economic situation is even more tense in Europe than in the USA.

Oil has given way again, it will show how this will affect the tank cells.

For investors, of course, some opportunities are now opening up, which we are also trying to take advantage of. Already in the last quarter we were able to do this.

There is still no solution to the Ukraine issue. Those who had hoped for a steady path to peace after the meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska and the subsequent meeting with the head of Ukraine and EU leaders were disappointed. Currently, the war continues in full force. The EU is talking about security troops after the war, and Putin is threatening that this should actually happen. A quick end is once again far from the horizon. There are no signs of easing tensions in Gaza either. Israel’s decision to completely occupy Gaza City, no matter the cost, is not met with universal approval. One gets the feeling that Israel wants to end this conflict once and for all with force.

The markets, however, are reacting more to the power struggle between the Fed and Trump and to the economic data itself. The new tariffs have had no impact yet, but the worst is likely yet to come. The markets are definitely nervous and volatile.

The Euro/USD is also subject to strong fluctuations, depending on the progress of Ukraine policy and tariffs.

The only consistent safe haven is, once again, gold.

For professionals, it is naturally an exciting and often very profitable time. We always try to find and exploit the best situations.

Our world remains turbulent. People are starving in Gaza, and Ukraine continues to be bombed, despite Trump’s ultimatum. The president’s tariff policy is also now casting a shadow; the 15% tariff agreement with the EU is a disaster for both sides, if you look closely. European products will become almost unaffordable for Americans, which will naturally put a strain on exports from the EU, and expensive times are also ahead for Harley-Davidson riders in Europe. While this result is being celebrated as a success, it is certainly not an acceptable outcome, especially for the metal industry, where tariffs are even higher. If only an agreement had been reached on TTIP years ago, we wouldn’t be in this situation now. But they used scaremongering with the pretext of chlorine chicken, even though most people don’t even know what that is all about. How can I push a struggling global economy even further into trouble? I’m imposing reciprocal punitive tariffs; at the very least, anyone with common sense should now be clear where this path leads. The only one keeping the situation somewhat under control is Jerome Powell, who is keeping the Fed’s key interest rate unchanged. This clearly puts him at odds with Trump. It’s good to have someone with backbone!

The markets (here the S&P 500) are naturally reacting to this and have given way in recent days following the agreement between the EU and the US. A storm is brewing!

The euro also failed to maintain its unjustified highs against the US dollar and fell sharply again in recent trading days. Gold, on the other hand, continues to rise, but none of the politicians recognize the signs of the times!

A lot has happened again in our world. If the situation in Ukraine and the escalation in the Gaza Strip aren’t enough, no, now there’s an open conflict with Iran. Let’s hope that all parties will soon sit down at the table and start talking sensibly again. Trump continues to fly like a flag in the wind, changing direction almost hourly. Predicting what he’s planning or intending to do next is therefore a virtually impossible task. The markets have taken this almost calmly, and investors are focusing more on fundamental and economic data, ignoring the roar from the White House. On the other hand, of course, all of these actions are having an impact on the economy. Time and again, we hear that the US could slide into a recession, and with higher prices to boot. Let’s hope that the Fed counteracts this, so nothing can be expected from the government in this regard. Trump’s budget proposal was waved through the Senate once, but it remains to be seen whether it will do the same in the House of Representatives. As already mentioned, the markets remain unfazed at the moment and continue their positive trend.

S&P 500

Oil remained relatively unaffected by the entire Iranian turmoil and continues to hover around $70.

However, the euro benefited significantly from Trump’s policies, gaining significantly against the dollar.

Our strategies also helped us achieve very good profits in the second quarter. The combination of stocks and futures was able to cushion all adverse effects.

Trump, Trump, Trump, is a constant refrain. Whether geopolitically regarding Greenland, Ukraine, Yemen, or Gaza, or economically, there’s no getting away from the US President. As was the case during his first term in office, his fickleness is familiar; he clearly has precise ideas about how the world should run, and he tries to use every avenue to impose his will. His co-chairman, Musk, isn’t doing any better, making massive cuts to government spending but handing himself millions in subsidies for his space program. Let’s not even talk about the questionable interpretation of data protection when he appropriates all of the population’s data for his own purposes. What’s driving the market, however, is the emerging economic war. None of the protagonists seem to realize that every punitive tariff imposed places a greater burden on their own economy and population than on the countries on which the tariffs are imposed. For example, a German car will continue to sell for €50,000, but for an American, it will cost €62,500 in the future. This hurts the buyer, and sales will obviously decline, which will then impact the global economy. Either way, these actions will slow the already weak economic growth.

How will the markets react? They have reacted with a correction of around 11% since the beginning of March, but has everything already been priced in? Or should we expect further declines? This question will be decided in the coming weeks, and one can only hope that Trump pulls the ripcord early enough, as he did during his first term.

S&P500

What currently appears to be a small miracle is that the euro is holding its own against the dollar, even though the European economy is weaker than the American one. But the price of gold shows where things are headed; we’re seeing new highs almost daily.

Euro/US Dollar

Gold

Our investment products are quite well positioned, and we are actively working to keep it that way.

We are performing far better than the market with our main product, and we have been able to realize substantial profits with our more speculative Profit product.