A new era with an old president, that’s how you could describe the last few weeks. Immediately after taking office, Donald Trump signed over 100 decrees that are intended to make some of his campaign promises come true. While his new migration policy has had very little impact on the global economy, the tariffs he wants to impose on Canadian, Mexican and Chinese products will certainly have an impact. He also has something planned for the EU and it is to be expected that he will also increase tariffs on European products. What he forgets, however, is that these measures will also have a very strong impact on the USA and the population there, because with higher tariffs, the well-known products that Americans love so much will also become more expensive, which will certainly stir up a certain resentment among the population. The initiative against Russia regarding the Ukraine crisis to impose further sanctions is also no guarantee that the war will end soon. However, there is also some positive news, the situation in Gaza has at least calmed down to some extent, let’s see how long that lasts.

The actions of the new old president are having an effect on the market, and there have been some fluctuations in recent weeks.

The ECB’s measures to further reduce interest rates also had a major impact on the euro/dollar exchange rate. Even if no one will admit it and people only talk about inflation, the euro has been devalued by more than 10% in the last year.

The next few weeks and months will show how the measures of the new legislature in the USA will continue to affect things. We can only hope that the annexation of Greenland and the integration of Canada into the USA remain just a pipe dream.

Global turbulence continues to increase, the war in the Middle East appears to be escalating, after Israel has deliberately eliminated Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, the biggest supporter of these groups, Iran, is now getting involved again. The possible effects cannot yet be estimated, will Israel continue to surgically attack precisely identified targets, or will there be a full-scale military conflict? In any case, the whole world is watching closely and everyone is hoping that the whole situation does not escalate into a wildfire. The Middle East conflict has almost pushed the situation in Ukraine into the background, but it is no less critical. The troops of Ukraine and Russia are still facing each other in a grueling war of material resources, and although Ukraine has certainly had successes, even on Russian soil, it still lacks the necessary clout to drive Putin out of the country completely.

In the USA, the election campaign is coming to an end and it is becoming increasingly clear that Trump is losing ground. Harris is currently able to win over more of the important swing states. It remains to be seen whether Trump will pull something out of his pocket at the last minute, as he did with Hillary Clinton.

What does all this mean for the stock markets? The market is closely monitoring the political situation in the world and is reacting to it. The FED’s interest rate cut of as much as 0.5% has given shares a boost, but any escalation of the two major conflicts at the moment dampens the mood again. Another slowing factor is the weakening Europe, whose economy is not really getting going.

The EUR/USD also fluctuates considerably, depending on which current news is damaging or boosting the euro or the dollar more. Crude oil has been steadily declining throughout the year, slowing inflation, but we should not forget that the winter season is now beginning.

The strongest quarter of the year begins on October 1st, let’s see if the Christmas business drives the European economy up a little, in the USA we see great hope.

The geopolitical situation continues to be shaped by the two conflicts in Ukraine and Israel. Only yesterday Israel was able to avert Hezbollah’s attacks, but whether that was not just a first strike remains to be seen. In any case, all foreign ministries are in turmoil and are trying to find all diplomatic solutions, with the USA at the forefront of course. Kamala Harris also made it very clear at the Democratic Party convention that Israel is an ally and that Ukraine also needs continued support. At this convention, she was also chosen as the presidential candidate with a large majority and immense support. The Obamas and Hillary Clinton both voted for Harris. Let the games begin, Trump now has a completely different opponent and is already falling behind in the polls.

From an economic point of view, it was FED chief Jerome Powell who made the headlines when he hinted that the Fed could lower interest rates again in the near future. He apparently believes that inflation is under control and that cheaper money can therefore be made available. Powell is apparently following ECB chief Lagarde, who has already lowered interest rates in the euro. The euro gained slightly against the US dollar after this announcement.

The stock market is still recovering, but has currently moved somewhat sideways, which should change as soon as volume returns to the market after the summer.

Let’s hope that the current geopolitical upheavals will soon calm down.

2024 began exactly as 2023 ended, the conflict in Ukraine is still going on and there are no signs of recovery in the Gaza Strip either. On the contrary, in recent weeks and months the situation has worsened with clashes in the Golan Heights and further interference by Iran. A possible escalation cannot be ruled out.

There was also some turbulence in the USA, apart from the foreign policy activities mentioned above. The defeated Joe Biden decided not to run for the highest office in the state and as soon as Kamala Harris took the stage for the Democrats, the poll numbers rose and she is already slightly ahead of Donald Trump. Due to weak economic forecasts, we had to record a mini-crash, or rather a correction, in July, but the stock market quickly recovered and is now striving for new heights, of course always with an eye on the presidential polls and global developments.

Another focus here is on the raw materials market. In July, crude oil was still at around $84, but we are now seeing a decline to around $75.

The precious metal gold, however, is still on the rise, recording new highs almost every week and currently at over $2500 per troy ounce. This shows us that many investors still prefer to invest in a safe haven rather than take risks. On the other hand, if risk appetite returns a little, there is considerable capital that can flow into the market.

VMJV is striving to diversify its investments accordingly and thus increase profits and minimize risk. The quarterly results for the second quarter make us positive in this regard and even for the rather sluggish third quarter, the forecasts currently look quite promising. Of course, as already mentioned, a lot depends on current global events, which we of course always keep an eye on; a possible compromise in Israel or perhaps even peace negotiations in Ukraine would of course boost the entire market and increase the risk appetite of market participants again.

Despite the aftermath of the Corona Pandemic and the ongoing Ukraine crisis, we were able to generate a profit for our customers as well as for the company in the first quarter of 2023. The company’s value has remained roughly the same, and the dividend is $0.997 per share, or 2.26%

Risk management has always been a priority as the market has been, and continues to be, difficult to predict. Another problem that had to be compensated for was the bankruptcy in the USA and Switzerland, to what extent other institutions will be affected cannot yet be estimated. In any case, this event also weakened investor confidence. With all these factors, we are nevertheless pleased to be able to look back on a positive quarter.

The dividend history for the quarter: 

Outlook:

We continue to expect mixed markets, which are strongly influenced by political developments, inflation and the behavior of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank must also be kept in mind. As a result, the entire economic situation and the job market are under our constant observation. Our further strategy will adapt to the respective market situation, but will also be more conservative for the second quarter of 2023. We expect a quarterly result for the second quarter of 2023 in the same range as the current result.