VMJV-Market Report 26th August 2024

The geopolitical situation continues to be shaped by the two conflicts in Ukraine and Israel. Only yesterday Israel was able to avert Hezbollah’s attacks, but whether that was not just a first strike remains to be seen. In any case, all foreign ministries are in turmoil and are trying to find all diplomatic solutions, with the USA at the forefront of course. Kamala Harris also made it very clear at the Democratic Party convention that Israel is an ally and that Ukraine also needs continued support. At this convention, she was also chosen as the presidential candidate with a large majority and immense support. The Obamas and Hillary Clinton both voted for Harris. Let the games begin, Trump now has a completely different opponent and is already falling behind in the polls.

From an economic point of view, it was FED chief Jerome Powell who made the headlines when he hinted that the Fed could lower interest rates again in the near future. He apparently believes that inflation is under control and that cheaper money can therefore be made available. Powell is apparently following ECB chief Lagarde, who has already lowered interest rates in the euro. The euro gained slightly against the US dollar after this announcement.

The stock market is still recovering, but has currently moved somewhat sideways, which should change as soon as volume returns to the market after the summer.

Let’s hope that the current geopolitical upheavals will soon calm down.

VMJV – Market report 19th August 2024

2024 began exactly as 2023 ended, the conflict in Ukraine is still going on and there are no signs of recovery in the Gaza Strip either. On the contrary, in recent weeks and months the situation has worsened with clashes in the Golan Heights and further interference by Iran. A possible escalation cannot be ruled out.

There was also some turbulence in the USA, apart from the foreign policy activities mentioned above. The defeated Joe Biden decided not to run for the highest office in the state and as soon as Kamala Harris took the stage for the Democrats, the poll numbers rose and she is already slightly ahead of Donald Trump. Due to weak economic forecasts, we had to record a mini-crash, or rather a correction, in July, but the stock market quickly recovered and is now striving for new heights, of course always with an eye on the presidential polls and global developments.

Another focus here is on the raw materials market. In July, crude oil was still at around $84, but we are now seeing a decline to around $75.

The precious metal gold, however, is still on the rise, recording new highs almost every week and currently at over $2500 per troy ounce. This shows us that many investors still prefer to invest in a safe haven rather than take risks. On the other hand, if risk appetite returns a little, there is considerable capital that can flow into the market.

VMJV is striving to diversify its investments accordingly and thus increase profits and minimize risk. The quarterly results for the second quarter make us positive in this regard and even for the rather sluggish third quarter, the forecasts currently look quite promising. Of course, as already mentioned, a lot depends on current global events, which we of course always keep an eye on; a possible compromise in Israel or perhaps even peace negotiations in Ukraine would of course boost the entire market and increase the risk appetite of market participants again.

VMJV – Market Report

The first month of 2024 is over and the economic forecasts for the whole year are already coming in. Things don’t look so rosy for the EU, the forecast economic growth is less than 1%, the USA is doing better, its forecast is over 2.5% growth. Apparently the USA is able to recover better from the economic crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine and the Middle East crisis apparently does not have such a strong impact on the country of limited opportunities. Nevertheless, it is precisely the Americans who are trying to bring peace in both conflicts, although of course the air strikes in Yemen and Lebanon counteract these efforts, as does the continued supply of arms to Ukraine.

From an economic point of view, US companies show with the quarterly figures for 4/2023 that they are on a good foundation, which is also reflected in the market with rising prices.

Our investment strategy remains conservative, moderately speculative but with the opportunity to take advantage of short-term trends. The result from January is correct and positive.

VMJV – 4th Quater 2023

Nobody had expected this, a war in Israel. The market was very turbulent in October and we struggled to maintain our positions and find sensible investments. But despite all adversities, the VMJV was able to generate a profit in the 4th quarter. The market calmed down in November and good markups were recorded in December. All of this resulted in a dividend of $1.59 per share or 3.62%.

We continue to make decisions about investments based on the same aspects of value preservation, risk management and profit-oriented. We therefore continue to invest in large stock corporations, as well as in energy and foreign exchange assets. We will reduce the precious metals we have built up again.

Outlook:

There are still several factors to be observed for the next year, the war in Ukraine continues to play a role, as well as the war in Israel, the interest rate policy of the national banks also needs to be monitored, the ECB and the FED have recently not made any further interest rate moves. At 5.5% in the USA and 4.5% in the EU, the key interest rate is already at a high level. This also resulted in a number of bankruptcies, the most famous in Europe being Sigma. We will also pay further attention to the development of climate policy, according to which the summit in Dubai produced more results than expected, although there is still considerable room for improvement.

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VMJV – 1. Quarter 2023

Despite the aftermath of the Corona Pandemic and the ongoing Ukraine crisis, we were able to generate a profit for our customers as well as for the company in the first quarter of 2023. The company’s value has remained roughly the same, and the dividend is $0.997 per share, or 2.26%

Risk management has always been a priority as the market has been, and continues to be, difficult to predict. Another problem that had to be compensated for was the bankruptcy in the USA and Switzerland, to what extent other institutions will be affected cannot yet be estimated. In any case, this event also weakened investor confidence. With all these factors, we are nevertheless pleased to be able to look back on a positive quarter.

The dividend history for the quarter:

Outlook:

We continue to expect mixed markets, which are strongly influenced by political developments, inflation and the behavior of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank must also be kept in mind. As a result, the entire economic situation and the job market are under our constant observation. Our further strategy will adapt to the respective market situation, but will also be more conservative for the second quarter of 2023. We expect a quarterly result for the second quarter of 2023 in the same range as the current result.