The geopolitical situation continues to be shaped by the two conflicts in Ukraine and Israel. Only yesterday Israel was able to avert Hezbollah’s attacks, but whether that was not just a first strike remains to be seen. In any case, all foreign ministries are in turmoil and are trying to find all diplomatic solutions, with the USA at the forefront of course. Kamala Harris also made it very clear at the Democratic Party convention that Israel is an ally and that Ukraine also needs continued support. At this convention, she was also chosen as the presidential candidate with a large majority and immense support. The Obamas and Hillary Clinton both voted for Harris. Let the games begin, Trump now has a completely different opponent and is already falling behind in the polls.

From an economic point of view, it was FED chief Jerome Powell who made the headlines when he hinted that the Fed could lower interest rates again in the near future. He apparently believes that inflation is under control and that cheaper money can therefore be made available. Powell is apparently following ECB chief Lagarde, who has already lowered interest rates in the euro. The euro gained slightly against the US dollar after this announcement.

The stock market is still recovering, but has currently moved somewhat sideways, which should change as soon as volume returns to the market after the summer.

Let’s hope that the current geopolitical upheavals will soon calm down.

2024 began exactly as 2023 ended, the conflict in Ukraine is still going on and there are no signs of recovery in the Gaza Strip either. On the contrary, in recent weeks and months the situation has worsened with clashes in the Golan Heights and further interference by Iran. A possible escalation cannot be ruled out.

There was also some turbulence in the USA, apart from the foreign policy activities mentioned above. The defeated Joe Biden decided not to run for the highest office in the state and as soon as Kamala Harris took the stage for the Democrats, the poll numbers rose and she is already slightly ahead of Donald Trump. Due to weak economic forecasts, we had to record a mini-crash, or rather a correction, in July, but the stock market quickly recovered and is now striving for new heights, of course always with an eye on the presidential polls and global developments.

Another focus here is on the raw materials market. In July, crude oil was still at around $84, but we are now seeing a decline to around $75.

The precious metal gold, however, is still on the rise, recording new highs almost every week and currently at over $2500 per troy ounce. This shows us that many investors still prefer to invest in a safe haven rather than take risks. On the other hand, if risk appetite returns a little, there is considerable capital that can flow into the market.

VMJV is striving to diversify its investments accordingly and thus increase profits and minimize risk. The quarterly results for the second quarter make us positive in this regard and even for the rather sluggish third quarter, the forecasts currently look quite promising. Of course, as already mentioned, a lot depends on current global events, which we of course always keep an eye on; a possible compromise in Israel or perhaps even peace negotiations in Ukraine would of course boost the entire market and increase the risk appetite of market participants again.